Renewed efforts towards a seize fire and peace negotiations
Latest reports keep referring to an imminent “Geneva III“. The pressure exerted by the “International community” on the warring parties in Yemen to end the fight soonest possible increases – probably also because of the steadily growing number of refugees. Rumours speak of an Omani-Russian peace proposal, and the UN and Ismail Ould Shayk Ahmed, the special envoy for Yemen, consider a restart of the negotiations that had been postponed several times since mid-January.
However, Saudi Arabia, the most powerful war participant will, once again not attend the discussions and reserve the right to continue bombing Yemen unrestrictedly, so that negotiations in the current pattern look absurd from the Yemeni viewpoint.
President Hadi and his government, representing the interests of Saudi Arabia in Yemen – at least officially – dismiss all negotiations for as long as the Houthis and the Saleh-Fraction have not painstakingly fulfilled the UNSR-Resolution 2216. Pre-negotiations in respect of freeing of prisoners, lifting of blockades to permit supplying the population and territorial displacements up to a certain point appear to be secretly under way.
The pattern of power relations meanwhile keeps shifting in Yemen but not in any sustainable way
The continued travel diplomacy of prime minister Bahah appears to bear fruit in so far as a level of understanding between Saleh-Houthis and the Emirates looks promising. The connecting elements are the fight against alQaida and Daasch terrorism, and a certain affinity of the rulers of Abu Dhabi und Dubai to the Saleh-Clan, plus the image of Islah as the common enemy, possibly also a showdown vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia.
The recent massive tension between Houthis und Saleh, and also his pressing ahead against the Saudis may well be abating while a switch over has occurred between Hadi and Bahah. Prime minister Khaled Bahah recently returned with several ministers to Aden after staying in the Emirates whereas President Hadi has changed again a number of government officials. The most important change concerns Ali alAhmadi, who retreated as head of security forces, and was instead appointed counsellor at the ministry of foreign affairs. Hadi, furthermore, appointed governors in the provinces of Hajja und Tihama, although both are under Houthi authority. Bahah, so far considered as Houthi compatible, all of a sudden launched an inflammatory speech against the Houthis and proclaimed eulogies over the good deeds of the Saudis, creating astonishment among his followers.
Hadi continues losing respect of, and popularity with, the population since his declared goal to restore security in Aden did not materialize. The situation is getting ever less secure, on the contrary, political assassinations and attacks have become a daily programme, supplemented by serious criminal actions such as armed robbery. The so far latest politically motivated assault was committed by a so-called suicide bomber succeeding in having a dynamite-loaded vehicle explode in the immediate vicinity of the government palace on January 28 th. Daash, as usually, immediately confessed to this assault via social media. Such confessions are contested by many South Yemenis suspecting Saleh to be behind this sabotage. The resumptions were nourished and increased the general bewilderment when it transpired that the photo published by Daash of the alleged bomber was identical to the one of a Dutch Djihadist, reportedly killed in action in Syria in October 2014.
The very insecure situation in Aden could probably be explained to result from the intention of some war parties to prevent a unified Yemen. Primarily interested in this are Daash und alQaida, who could spread out untroubled by the Houthis in a South Yemen without security structures.
Many Yemenis are sarcastically amused by a photo published by the social media and showing goats nibbling at a Hadi poster. It reminds the Yemenis that, while they suffered Saudi air raids, occupation and terrible shortages Hadi resided in one of the luxurious guest villas in Riyadh and asked the Saudis to expose his fellow countrymen to more hardship. When he returned from exile after seven months he had visibly gained weight.
Hadi´s “order” of a bomb war against Yemen brought about an accusation of high treason of the exiled president and five of his government members by the Houthis. The proceedings against the accused were conducted in their absence by the judge Yahya alRubaid in Sana´a. On January 25th a Saudi bomb destroyed the house of the judge, killing off him and almost all his family.
The accusations brought against Saudi Arabia`s conduct of war by the international NGO’s, as increasingly conducted against civilians and the economic infrastructure of the country, start gaining medial influence with the UN massively attacking Saudi Arabia for violating martial law. The US government and, in particular, Great Britain on the other hand, start being pressured. Saudi Arabia claims that British advisers are permanently present in the operations room to assist defining targets, while the British government attempts to keep at a distance and postulates that British experts exert no influence on the choice of targets. The potential of the infrastructure destroyed by the Saudi air force – using mainly in Britain produced bombs – increased on daily basis. A breakdown renders the following figures of damage suffered since mid-December 2015:
The number of military victims is assiduously not disclosed but an unconfirmed figure of 24.000 killed soldiers leaked out a short while ago. In the meantime, famine is spreading. According to NGO´s reports 14 mio Yemenis are malnourished.
The international situation and, consequently, the constellation of Yemen in the out-of-control Middle Eastern power structure keep constantly changing. The most important events affecting Yemen during the past weeks:
- the sanctions against Iran were lifted, the position of the country has considerably improved, an international race for business deals with this financially well-established country with a huge pent-up demand for modern products has started.
- Saudi Arabia starts losing influence also in the Syria negotiations while Russia experiences an upward trend, this also as a result of military success.
- The news that Saudi Arabia, at least partly, straightforwardly purchases the solidarity of 24 countries with which a coalition was announced (Sudan, Somalia, Malaysia), by no means improves the prestige of the country.
- To the amazement of the international press Foreign Secretary Kerry emphasized the undisturbed friendship and loyalty between Saudi Arabia and the USA.
- The visit of the Chinese president Xi Jinping in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran in addition to discussions of common interests in the energy and transport sectors, also included peace negotiations for Yemen.
- Turkey is heading towards a phase of destabilisation which might result in civil war in the East of the country.
- Russia interferes just like in Syria to an increasing extent in the agenda, as generally in the Middle East, and mostly in accordance with Iran.