The military situation in Yemen has remained relatively unchanged for the past weeks. Houthi-Saleh-forces are present in the provinces more or less representing the former North Yemen, with the exception of Marib, where war rages. And in the provinces of alBeidha, Schabwah und alDhale Houthi dominance slightly exceeds the frontiers of Yemen before the unification.
Sana´a and the Northern provinces are almost daily bombarded by Saudi allied forces and Taizz remains under violent unrest and fiercely fought over but relief supplies could in the meantime be delivered to the besieged population. In the capital city Sana´a and the provinces of Dhamar, Ibb, Rhaima, Hodeida and Manacha the situation is relatively calm and is under Houthi control, although both Sana´a and extended further areas have been without electricity for months and the economy is stagnating. The ministries and offices are operational in Sana´a with a major share of the staff appointed under Saleh still at work. The Houthis have exerted little influence in this respect while dominating military and security affairs. Most of the schools and universities have recommenced, many among them in emergency shelters and ruins since numerous school buildings were damaged or destroyed.
The numbers of civil casualties and injured persons, of famine stricken and displaced citizens do not stop increasing and the entire western part of Yemen is threatened by an alarming shortage, in particular children suffer from malnourishment and illnesses.
In Hodeidah the port is buzzing with incoming relief supplies and commercial goods. A short time ago Saudi Arabia requested a departure of all vessels with a view to exercises envisaged at sea with allied Sunni countries to be carried out in the port areas. This was quite obviously recognized by the ruling Houthi-Saleh fraction as a pretext to occupy the port.
The situation in South Yemen is truly ambiguous. It remains inexplicable which targets are pursued by whom.
The provinces of Hadramaut and Mahra, covering approximately half of the entire Yemeni territory, had so far not been involved in the war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi-Saleh forces, nor had Hadi´s so-called legitimate government been represented. Almost the entire region is under alQaida control upon consent with parts of the local authorities. The provinces of Marib and alJauf remain heavily contested areas with advances and retreats on both sides.
Although Hadi recently announced in Riyadh that “ Yemen has been freed to 85%“ the exiled government having re-entered the country in no way controls Schabwah, alDhale, Lahij und Abyan, and not even the “provisional” capital Aden.
The situation in Aden turns more unbearable every day – less secure and more chaotic. On March 5th a hit squad in a new UAE funded Yemeni police vehicle raided an old people´s home administrated by the Congregation of Mother Theresa. Four armed offenders stormed the hospice, captivated and killed 14 persons, among them foreign nuns, assistants and geriatric resident patients. The offenders escaped unrecognized. This “the offenders escaped unrecognized“ has brought the Adani people to the verge of despair. Violent crimes have become a daily occurrence, with in most cases officers of the security police being shot at from passing motorbikes but a Salafist clergy and a judge have also been victims. Car bombs explode on the market, bomb attacks destroy police stations.
The murderous attack on the hospice met with furious protects by the Adani population, all over Yemen and by the international community. AlQaida and Daash hastily dissociated themselves from the attack in the social media. Many questions of the Adani population remain unanswered:
Who is interested to sow chaos und violence in Aden if not alQaida und Daash? Why is the government incapable of arresting the offenders? Why is it not possible to provide for security? Why is the project of recruiting the resistance fighters for a public security force obstructed? Does this destabilisation aim at a prevention or a promotion of the Secession of the South? What is the intention of the occupying forces – in the first instance the Emirates?
The dissociation on the part of alQaida and Daash gave fresh impetus to new rumours intensified by the Hadi fraction and Islah that the former president Saleh launches such subversive activities because he wishes to prevent any stabilisation of Hadi´s government in the South. However, such rumours strengthen in the first instance Saleh himself, conveying the image of a big wheel and commander of an armada of violent criminals, thus reactivating the anguish of South Yemenis having experienced more than 20 years of anxiety under the terror spreading government.
In this way and by means of recent TV addresses Saleh succeeded in strengthening his position once again and dampened the restorative return of the revolutionary ambitions for freedom and democracy of the Yemeni population yet again. One further former power broker is returning to join the power play in Yemen:
Ali Mohsen alAhmar, while in exile in Riyadh, had been appointed by Hadi as his deputy, i.e. the deputy supreme commander of the armed forces. This alters the constellation of the former political manipulators and the old power merry go round starts turning again.
A short recapitulation: Ali Mohsen alAhmar (70) had been the closest confident of Ali Abdullah Saleh, remunerated by him with numerous sinecures, many thereof expropriated latifundia in South Yemen. Rivalry started when Saleh commenced around 2500 to groom his son Ahmed to become his successor. Saleh appointed alAhmar as (unlucky) commander of six wars against the Houthis. During the last of these wars in 2009 alAhmar’s headquarter had – by mistake? – been hit by Saudi aviation bombs, but alAhmar remained uninjured. When the revolution started in 2011 alAhmar joined the revolutionaries and requested that Saleh step down. He had been chief commander of the so-called Fyrga, a very big armed unit in numbers and very loyal but much less educated and equipped than Saleh´s Republican Guard and his security headquarter. In addition, Ali Mohsen alAhmar is closely connected to a part of alQaida in Yemen. When the Houthis entered Sana´a on September 21st, 2014, he was utterly surprised by the co-operation of Saleh and the Houthis and had to flee to Riyadh into exile, where he allegedly gave advice to the Saudi army command in the air combat against the Houthis and during the invasion of the ground troops. The Saudis obviously overestimated the belligerent spirit of pro-Hadi fighters but also alAhmar so far failed to motivate strong tribes to join forces with the Saudis. Nevertheless, Ali Mohsen is personally interested in a public position of power in Yemen, not least because he wishes to reclaim his huge property not always legally acquired.
While the originally revolutionary conflict in Yemen increasingly rigidifies towards a power struggle the international stakeholders exert pressure towards a ceasefire through the UN – at the very least to avoid waves of refugees leaving Yemen. The UN-security council appears to have gained insight that Resolution 2216 had been counterproductive in respect of a ceasefire and peace negotiations since it favoured Saudi Arabia and conceded the country unrestricted bombing in Yemen. A new Resolution on humanitarian basis, immediately objected to by Saudi Arabia, is to initiate a path towards peace. This is not so good news for the Yemenis as the drafting of such a resolution was offered by Great Britain so far having massively supported the bomb war against Yemen.
Breaking News:
After one week of secret preparatory discussions a Houthi delegation arrived in Saudi Arabia for negotiations. Simultaneously hostilities between the two parties at war were subdued. Neither the exiled government of president Hadi who is in Indonesia at the moment, nor ex-president Saleh or the Moutamar are represented. At the same time Massud Jazayiri, the Iranian brigadier general announced that Yemen will receive the same “advisory support” as the Syrian government had been given before. The negotiations are conducted by Mohamed Abdulsalam who already presided the Houthi delegations in Geneva I and II.
Mohamed Abdulsalam, dyed-in-the-wool politician and spokesman of the Houthis, is negotiating a cease fire, frontier conflicts and peace conditions with and in Saudi Arabia