Latest developments in and around Yemen
Regional situation
The new alliances in the Middle East remain far from being stable and the fight for Yemen, i.e. the exploitation of the country´s inner conflicts by instrumentalizing the conflict parties serves the showdown of the adversaries.
Saudi Arabia for the first time ( after the rehearsal in Bahrain) tests her military power and attempts to use the air war against Yemen for uniting the Gulf countries and , at the same time, assuming military control. King Salman schemes to strengthen his alliance against Iran by including Turkey, Pakistan, Qatar and Egypt in order to replace his former coalition with the USA.
Iran endeavours to counteract this Gulf Alliance by incorporating Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and, to an increasing extent, also Oman. Iran also strives to neutralize Pakistan and – almost always – to de-escalate and avoid military intervention. Provocative steps are also taken, however, such as the despatch of cargo vessels with aid supplies refusing to submit to inspection by the supervisory bodies imposed by Saudi Arabia. Iran can rely on being backed by both Russia and China.
Iran does not stop pointing out that the “Brother Muslims” should co-operate and stick together and not permit being played off against one another by Israel.
Israel, on the other hand, is most interested in inflaming conflict between Arab powers and escalate discord. So far Israel and Saudi Arabia share the target of barring Iran from using nuclear power in one way or the other but, in the event of Saudi Arabia´s quest for nuclear power to catch up with Iran, Israel will turn from an ally into an enemy of the kingdom.
Endeavours to forestall a positive conclusion of the nuclear power negotiations with Iran are currently vigorously supported by France – all of sudden the Gulf countries´ pet – and Great Britain, as is also the military course of action against Yemen, the latter in the expectation of lucrative orders for new weapons to replace those used up (Saudi Arabia) and destroyed (Yemen).
The vague development of a new foreign policy of the USA in the Middle East appears to be particularly ambiguous with regard to Iran and Saudi Arabia.
In the medium term a political rapprochement is to be expected between the USA and Iran on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and their proxies plus Daach, al-Qaida and radical Salafists on the other. The battle lines have already been drawn in all war-struck countries of the Arab spring, at the time being most easily comprehensible in Iraq.
Saudi Arabia deploys all available means and measures to swart a liberalisation and democratic tendencies in the Middle East while the USA start having second thoughts about vested moral principles, trying to regain lost credibility. Democracy should no longer only be sermonized while repressive governments are simultaneously supported for opportunistic reasons.
The anti-terror battle has absolute priority for the USA, with Iran being a by far more efficient partner than the Gulf countries. And the USA also profit from Saudi air attacks on Yemen to launch drones against alQaida fighters in the wake.
The change in positions and alliances opens a wide operational basis for Russia and China, with the Russian doctrine vis-à-vis the development in the Middle East essentially deviating from western, above all US politics (not a scrap of a uniform policy!).
The present development in Yemen should thus be considered in this environment of political tensions and the instability of the region.
The situation in Yemen
The present situation in Yemen is “homemade”, in particular as regards Saleh´s coup and the Houthis´ overthrow of government on the one hand, but cannot be imagined without the intervention of the regional forces, on the other. The following factors characterise the present situation:
- The unsuccessful conference in Camp David when US president Obama met the – deputy – rulers of the Gulf countries and no agreement on a mutual assistance pact of the USA and the Gulf countries came about. “Crisis in Yemen”, the envisaged theme of discussion is still lacking an announcement of results. In the preliminary press conference Obama had asked for solutions for: “How we can build on the ceasefire that´s been established to restore a process for an inclusive, legitimate government inside of Yemen”.
- End of the ceasefire/bombing Yemen on May 18th, immediately recommenced at even more intensity, raiding all towns, especially Sana´a.
- Pitifully insufficient supply of the Yemeni population with aid during the five-day ceasefire. Aid material did not reach those in need because of the Saudi port blockades and meticulous checking.
- Termination of the three-day conference in Ryadh on May 20th, dominated by the GCC, with the exiled Yemeni government and about 150 representatives of Yemeni political parties with the exception of the Houthis and A.A. Saleh but Moutamar personalities participating.
- Iran keeps Saudi Arabia accusing of having caused the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen.
- Iran sent a cargo vessel with 2.500 tonnes aid material to Hodeidah, accompanied by two corvettes and insists that the consignment be checked exclusively by the UN in the port of Hodeidah. Saudi Arabia intends to blockade the Bab alMandab and wants checks to be carried out by Saudi officers in Djibuti.
- The most important detail of the final Document at the Ryadh conference: “The declaration called for deploying Arab forces in Yemeni cities as part of support to popular pro-government resistance fighters as well as a humanitarian relief intervention”. This implies that the sovereignty of the Yemeni state will not only be further undermined in the air and at sea but also on the ground – with the consent of the exiled government.
- Number of victims as at May 20th according to UN since the start of the air raids on March 26th : 2,200 killed (mostly civilians), more than 7,000 insured, most of them without medical care, 550,000 displaced persons ( all figures without Houthi victims since these are not known).
- May 21st: announcement of an inclusive Yemeni conference on May 28th in Geneva by UN Secretary General Ban ki-moon: The target of the conference is “to restore momentum towards a Yemeni-led political transition process”. He obliges all participants: “to act in good faith and without preconditions”.
- Foreign minister Ryad Yassin declined to attend the conference for the exiled government because of the short date and Abdelmalik alHouthi stipulated that the peace and partnership agreement dated September 21st, 2014, be the starting point for the negotiations. In his latest communication Saleh had already tabled the suggestion for such a conference in Geneva!